Final Oscar Nomination Predictions: Why I’m Skeptical About 'The Substance' & Bullish on 'The Brutalist'

‘Twas the night before Oscar noms
When all through the house
Film Twitter was preparing to bitch, moan, and grouse

The Brutalist, Anora, Emilia Perez
Where are the female directors, she says

Ariana vs. Zoe, Brody vs. Timmy
At least this time, the host’s not a Jimmy

And when the dust settles
One winner will stand tall

Will they wear a papal hat
Flowing robes and all

Could it instead prove to be
The fearless immigrant’s year

Or perhaps Wicked will win
Having made us stand up and cheer

So good luck to the movies
From Neon and A24

I can’t wait to see
Who’s seated on the Dolby floor

It’s Wednesday night, and Oscar nominations arrive in the morning. Tensions are high around down as the playing field is narrowed.

Earlier today, I scooped trades on the news that David Leitch is in negotiations to direct Ocean’s 14 for Warner Bros., which is bringing back George Clooney and Brad Pitt.

There was big movement on the Oscar front, as the Academy announced that regardless of which songs are nominated for Best Original Song tomorrow morning, none of them will be played live during the ceremony, as the show’s producers are choosing to focus on the songwriters themselves rather than their music.

The producers also confirmed plans to honor the city of Los Angeles during the broadcast, though they didn’t go into specifics.

Next year’s Oscar season kicks off tomorrow night with the start of the Sundance Film Festival, which I simply don’t have the bandwidth to cover this year — not that the lineup looks all that great.

I was much more impressed by the lineup for SXSW, which will play host to the Nicole Kidman thriller Holland, A24’s horror-comedy Death of a Unicorn starring Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega, and the world premiere of O’Dessa, a new musical from Patti Cake$ director Geremy Jasper starring Stranger Things sensation Sadie Sink.

In other awards news, the nominees for the USC Scripter Awards were unveiled on Wednesday, with Oscar frontrunners Conclave and Sing Sing nominated alongside A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, and The Wild Robot. I’ll be rooting for Sing Sing and The Wild Robot, though I have a feeling that Conclave will win the vote.

Over on the TV side, the nominees are Baby Reindeer, Ripley, Say Nothing, Shōgun, and Slow Horses, which has won the past two years. The Apple TV+ series is extremely unlikely to pull off the threepeat given its competition this year, and personally, I’ll be pulling for Baby Reindeer, which deserves all of its kudos.

And the Razzies unveiled their annual nominations, with Joker: Folie a Deux “leading the way” with seven nominations. It’s hard to argue with some of the selections, though Megalopolis director Francis Ford Coppola doesn’t belong here. That’s just rude!

Tonight’s newsletter features my final, last-minute Oscar predictions, my thoughts on 20th Century Studios picking up Martin Scorsese’s Devil in the White City movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio, and a hot scoop about Kumail Nanjiani.

Plus, there are items about Robert Eggers’ new werewolf movie, Paramount’s starry cast for its adaptation of Children of Blood and Bone, and the trailer for Blumhouse’s thriller Drop starring Meghann Fahy of The White Lotus, which received an update of its own on Wednesday.

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